Analyzing and Forecasting China Inter-provincial Migration Using a GIS Approach

Principal Investigator:
Shen, Jianfa

Co-investigator(s):
----

Summary:
The enormous and still expanding population in China has been and will be a strategic element in China¡¦s struggle toward development and modernization. Large amount of surplus rural labors and rising urban unemployment have led escalating number of floating population and migrants moving around in the country from rural to urban areas and from one province to another. How the rapidly changing regional economic structure and spatial development affect the direction and size of migration? How population and migration is responding/over-responding to the changing demand of labor in various areas? This research will make use of the recent population Census and survey data in 1987 and 1991 to investigate these issues. A GIS and modeling approach will be adopted. Specifically, relevant migration data will be collected and stored in a GIS system based on Arc/Info at first. Then a migration model will be developed to model the migration system. Finally, simulations assuming different regional development and migration policies will be carried out and be visually analyzed using the GIS system.